American International Group, Inc.

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is an American global property and casualty insurance company that underwrites commercial and personal insurance across more than 200 countries and jurisdictions, generating $26.7 billion in revenue and $3.2 billion in net income on a trailing twelve-month basis through the first quarter of 2026. Once synonymous with the 2008 financial crisis — the company required a $182 billion government bailout after its credit default swap portfolio collapsed — AIG has undergone one of the most consequential corporate transformations of the past decade, emerging as a focused, consistently profitable P&C underwriter that bears almost no resemblance to the sprawling conglomerate that nearly failed.

This is a turnaround story that has already worked, which makes it a different kind of investment file from most. The question is no longer whether AIG survives but whether the operating and capital-return momentum that drove the stock from the low $40s in 2022 to the high $70s in 2026 can continue in the face of a softening U.S. property market, a newly installed CEO, and a balance sheet that is absorbing the final stages of the multi-year unwinding of its Corebridge Financial stake. The file turns on a single question: whether AIG's underwriting discipline, now embedded across the organization after five consecutive years of underwriting profits, can compound through the cycle rather than merely having benefited from a hard market that is now fading.

The bull case is straightforward — a management team that delivered what it promised, a capital-return machine generating $6–7 billion annually in buybacks and dividends, and an emerging AI strategy that could widen the competitive moat in underwriting. The bear case is equally straightforward — property insurance is the most cyclical business in financials, the market is turning, and AIG's recent growth was pulled forward by reinsurance savings and deal-making that will not repeat at the same pace.