Carrier Global Corporation

Carrier Global Corporation is an American manufacturer of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration equipment, and a global provider of building management and cold-chain monitoring systems, generating $21.7 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers across more than 160 countries through a portfolio anchored by brands including Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic, and Carrier Transicold.

This is a story about a portfolio transformation that has been executed but not yet fully priced. Between 2023 and 2025, Carrier sold its Fire & Security and Commercial Refrigeration businesses, acquired Viessmann Climate Solutions for $14.157 billion total consideration ($11.156B cash + $3.001B stock), and consolidated its identity around climate solutions — the legacy heating and cooling franchise that Willis Carrier invented in 1915. The result is a simpler, more focused industrial: four climate-centric segments, a market-leading position in North American residential HVAC, a fast-growing global commercial HVAC business riding the data center build-out, and a European heat-pump franchise whose secular promise has so far been obscured by a cyclical downturn in European heating demand. The file turns on a single question: whether the commercial HVAC and aftermarket growth engines can compound fast enough to overcome the residential cycle and tariff headwinds currently depressing earnings, and at what point the market has already discounted the answer.