International Paper Company

International Paper Company is an American manufacturer of renewable fiber-based packaging products, principally containerboard and corrugated packaging, with operations across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, generating $24.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. The company is the largest producer of containerboard in the United States and, following the January 2025 acquisition of DS Smith, one of the largest integrated packaging companies in the Western world.

This is a transformation story masquerading as a cyclical packaging stock. Under Chairman and CEO Andy Silvernail, who joined in mid-2024, International Paper has embarked on the most aggressive restructuring in its 128-year history: closing roughly 20% of North American paper capacity, selling the Global Cellulose Fibers business for $1.5 billion, acquiring UK-based DS Smith for approximately $7 billion, and, in January 2026, announcing a plan to separate the combined North American and EMEA businesses into two independent public companies. The 80/20 cost program — a zero-based redesign of the operating footprint, commercial organization, and overhead — targets more than $1 billion in cumulative cost-out. Management has guided to $5 billion in enterprise adjusted EBITDA by 2027, roughly double the run rate the business was generating before the transformation began.

The central question is whether execution can outrun the macro. The transformation is capital-intensive, requiring elevated capex of roughly $1.9 billion annually through 2027, while North American diesel inflation, European energy prices, and cautious consumer demand compress margins in the near term. The company's Q1 2026 earnings call lowered the full-year 2026 EBITDA guide to $3.2 billion to $3.5 billion, citing roughly $250 million in macro and operational headwinds. If the cost-out arrives on schedule and containerboard pricing holds, the $5 billion bridge is credible; if not, the balance sheet, carrying $9.7 billion in net debt post-DS Smith, becomes the story.