The Mosaic Company

The Mosaic Company is the world's leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, supplying customers in approximately 40 countries from mines and processing facilities in Florida, Saskatchewan, Brazil, and Peru. With $12.1 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, Mosaic is simultaneously the second-largest integrated phosphate producer globally, a top-four global potash producer, and the largest fertilizer production and distribution company in Brazil.

This is a story about a commodity producer navigating a generational raw-material shock while trying to prove that a decade of capital investment has built a business that can generate cash across the cycle. The Persian Gulf conflict has upended the global sulfur market, cutting off roughly half of seaborne sulfur volumes and sending spot prices toward $1,200 per tonne — a level at which most of the world's phosphate producers are underwater on a marginal-cost basis. Mosaic entered this crisis with recently upgraded assets, a structurally advantaged North American sulfur supply chain, and a potash business that operates independently of phosphate raw-material dynamics. Whether those advantages are enough to preserve the balance sheet and keep the investment case intact is the essential question.

The file turns on the tension between Mosaic's genuine structural advantages — captive ammonia, Gulf Coast sulfur logistics, the lowest-cost potash mines in the Western Hemisphere — and the brute fact that even advantaged producers cannot print cash when global phosphate operating rates collapse. The same Persian Gulf conflict that starves the industry of sulfur also starves farmers of affordable fertilizer, and it is not clear which side gives first.