Wynn Resorts, Limited

Wynn Resorts, Limited is a designer, developer and operator of luxury integrated resorts, running four properties — Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace in Macau, Wynn Las Vegas and Encore in Nevada, and Encore Boston Harbor in Massachusetts — alongside a 40% equity interest in a resort under construction in Ras Al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates. It recorded $7.14 billion of operating revenue and $2.22 billion of Adjusted Property EBITDAR in fiscal 2025, and most of its Macau exposure is held through a separately listed subsidiary, Wynn Macau, Limited, whose gaming concession runs to the end of 2032.

This is a story about irreplaceable physical assets in three tightly regulated gaming markets, a balance sheet carrying $10.7 billion of debt, and an unusually heavy investment cycle that management says peaks in 2027. On today's numbers the equity does not look cheap — about 23 times trailing net income and 11 times EV/EBITDA on figures we set out later — but the case for owning it is not really about today's multiple. It is about what happens to cash flow when the capital expenditure and the equity funding of the UAE project stop absorbing everything the business throws off.

The file turns on one question: whether Macau's premium consumer and Las Vegas's pricing power hold up long enough for the Al Marjan Island opening and the roll-off of development spending to convert Wynn's cash generation into the deleveraging-and-returns story management is selling. Management has told investors to expect a "significant free cash flow inflection point coming in 2027." That claim is the whole investment case.